BYU @ Colorado
Updated: Sep 22, 2025
Last Meeting (Alamo Bowl, Dec. 28, 2024)
BYU controlled the 2024 Alamo Bowl wire-to-wire, beating Colorado 36–14 behind a physical run game, early defensive stops, and a 20–0 halftime lead. The Cougars held CU to 37 rushing yards (1.4 YPC) and salted it away with clock-control in the second half. That structural matchup — BYU’s trench advantage vs. Colorado’s speed/verticals — is very much back on the table this week.
Game Details
When/Where: Saturday, Sept. 27, 8:15 p.m. MT — Folsom Field (Boulder)
TV: ESPN
Line: BYU -5.5
Context: Big 12 opener for BYU; Colorado enters 2–2 after beating Wyoming.
Colorado at a Glance
Colorado’s offense has looked big play-prone with a revived vertical game and QB keepers. Veteran QB Kaidon Salter reclaimed QB1 - after being benched prior to a 36-20 loss at Houston - and flashed dual-threat potential vs. Wyoming (304 pass, 86 rush), which is the blueprint for CU to create explosives and avoid long drives. Defensively, the Buffs have leaked chunk runs and downfield shots at times; they’ll need to force passing downs and hit home with pressure to flip field position.
The BYU Side
BYU is 3–0 after a composed 34–13 road win at ECU. Freshman QB Bear Bachmeier handled his first road start with poise, using an efficient underneath game and timely shots downfield, averaging 9.9 yards per attempt, 72% completion 246 yards, 1 passing TD and 1 rushing TD. LJ Martin had his third straight game over 100 rushing yards and his first rushing TD of the season. The defense again was excellent: sound leverage outside, sturdy run fits, and a game-breaking takeaway sequence as Evan Johnson secured interceptions on back-to-back defensive series. Overall, the defense is top rated in almost all statistical categories - #1 in turnover margin per game, #3 in points per game, #11 in yards per carry, #22 in yards per pass, etc. This is the first conference test and a second straight road environment.
Advanced Numbers Snapshot (season-to-date)
Overview
More detailed definitions of all terms are available in the Glossary.
Explosiveness (how big are the average successful plays?) Higher on offense is better, lower on defense is better. Check the glossary for a more detailed description and examples.
BYU — Off 1.351, Def 0.986
Colorado — Off 1.472, Def 1.287
Read: CU’s offense has been somewhat more explosive so far, but BYU’s defense prevents explosive plays much better than CU’s.
Trench metrics (run-game creation/denial, short yardage, stuffs):
Offense -
Line Yards (Off - higher=better): BYU 3.430 | CU 2.895
Power Success (Off - higher=better): BYU 76.9% | CU 75.0%
Stuff Rate (Off - lower=better): BYU 15.1% | CU 20.4%
Defense -
Line Yards (Def - lower=better): BYU 1.379 | CU 2.943
Power Success (Def - lower=better): BYU 72.7% | CU 70.8%
Stuff Rate (Def - higher=better): BYU 35.1% | CU 21.2%
Read: BYU’s run game travels (creates more push, gets stuffed less), and BYU’s run defense is elite at killing line surge and creating losses.
Havoc (Percentage of plays where defense forced a turnover or negative play):
Havoc Off allowed (lower = better):
F7: BYU F7 8.3% | CU 12.5%
DB: BYU 3.1% | CU 4.0%
Total: BYU 11.4% | CU 16.5%
Havoc Def created (higher = better):
F7: BYU 15.8% | CU 9.3%
DB: BYU 5.1% | CU 7.2%
Total: BYU 20.9% | CU 16.5%
Read: BYU wins the negative-plays battle on both sides — the Cougars avoid turnovers/sacks/TFLs on offense and create more on defense.
Matchup: Where This Game Tilts
BYU run game vs. CU front
Alamo Bowl precedent plus BYU’s 2025 run efficiency point at a Cougars advantage if they stay on schedule. CU is allowing 194.5 rush YPG (4.5 YPC); BYU has been excellent rushing at 6.5 YPC. The advanced numbers scream BYU advantage on early downs: Line Yards Off 3.430 vs CU Line Yards Def 2.943, plus BYU’s Stuff Rate Off 0.151 suggests consistent 2nd-and-short. Look for Martin/Moa to have a big day and likely a few designed runs for Bear. Expect duo/inside-zone run schemes, then play-action crossers/glance routes off it.
CU explosives vs. BYU’s top-down integrity
Colorado likely needs shot plays to keep up. Their offense has lived off of big plays but struggled to when forced to play long, methodical drives. BYU’s defense has been excellent at preventing big plays so far this season - look for the defense to play contain to negate Salter's scrambling ability while playing deeper zone coverage. The Buff's used a lot of screen plays in their first three games but used them less last week against Wyoming. Salter connected on multiple deep balls, including a 47 yard strike down the middle of the field in the 3rd quarter. We'll likely see more attempts at the same this week, which could give the defense time to get home and create negative plays.
Short yardage & red zone
Both offenses can move the pile (Power Success Off ~0.75+). On defense, CU’s 0.708 in short yardage is a hair stingier than BYU’s 0.727, but BYU’s Stuff Rate Def 0.351 can blow up goal-to-go snaps even when the offense “should” convert. CU also had a field goal blocked last week. Advantage BYU - Will Ferrin extends his made field goal streak with 2 more against ECU, now holding the BYU record with 24 consecutive makes.
Havoc margin & field position
BYU’s offense avoids negative plays and turning over the ball while BYU’s defense creates havoc at a high rate. That double edge feeds the Cougars’ field-position game and keeps Colorado behind the chains as they generally struggle to move the ball outside of big splash plays.
Keys to the Game (BYU)
Cap explosives - Keep the roof on vs. CU’s verticals and QB keeps; make them stack 10–12-play drives.
Feed the run game early - Make CU live in base defense; build play-action off a positive run script.
Win the havoc margin - Stay turnover-neutral on the road and cash CU’s negative plays into short fields.
Prediction
Colorado made a name for themselves as a big play offense last season and is trying to replicate that this season. BYU's defense rises to the challenge again, like they did in the Alamo bowl, and largely prevents the big plays. The Cougars offense continues to make strides forward, relying on the run game this week but also taking more shots downfield. BYU wins convincingly in Boulder and once again covers the spread.
BYU 37, Colorado 17
Comments