BYU @ Iowa State — Business Trip to Ames
Updated: Oct 21, 2025
Recent History & Storylines
Iowa State leads the series with an unblemished record of 5-0. Their largest margin of victory came on Nov. 11th, 2023 when they crushed the Cougars in Provo 45-13 during Jake Retzlaff's first home start. The game was decided by half time as the Cyclones built a 31-7 lead. It was part of an up and down season for redshirt freshman QB Rocco Becht and marked a turning point in his career.
Iowa State reached as high as #14 in the AP poll following 5 straight wins to start the season. Back-to-back losses on the road at Cincinnati and Colorado saw them fall out of the polls and a bye week last week has given them time to regroup. Any hopes of reaching the conference championship hinge on winning out and some key losses by other teams. BYU enters the game on an emotional high after a hard fought victory at home over the Utah Utes last week - and set up for a potential emotional letdown on the road.
Game Details
When/Where: Saturday, October 25, 1:30 p.m. MT - Jack Trice Stadium
TV: FOX
Line: Iowa State -2.5
Iowa State at a Glance
Iowa State’s offense is grounded in balance and patience, with junior Rocco Becht at quarterback steering the ship. Becht has thrown for 1,622 yards this season with 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and his 8.1 yards per attempt reflect an ability to stretch vertically when needed. The run game features Abu Sama III and Carson Hansen splitting most of the reps, but in short yardage situations and the redzone, Rocco Becht has taken a lot of carries and leads the team with 7 rushing TD's. The passing game doesn't rely heavily on any one player, with fairly even targets among the top 5 targets. The tight ends are featured heavily, with Benjamin Brahmer and Gabe Burkle each getting multiple receptions each week and 4 TD passes between them this season. Their offensive identity is similar to Utah's, though somewhat more explosive and not nearly as efficient. The Cyclones are also potentially without a kicker as the first three kickers on the depth chart are all injured; the second string has been practicing again, but we likely won't know his official status until later this week. Offensive lineman Carson Rhodes took over kickoff duties during the Colorado game.
On the defensive side, Iowa State presents a mix of physicality and experience, though not without question marks. Anchor players include defensive tackle Domonique Orange and Caleb Bacon at outside linebacker, both of whom carry big-play disruption potential. Orange, in particular, is regarded as an interior force whose presence alone demands double-teams. However, Iowa State’s defensive depth off the bench and in critical substitution situations has been flagged as a weakness, as multiple defensive backs are out with injury.
The BYU Side
The Cougars delivered on another chapter of the rivalry story - chaos, but with a late lead and a less dramatic finish than last season. In a 24-21 victory over Utah, BYU shook off the history, the pressure of the moment, and a tense couple of minutes during the fourth-quarter where the Utes seemed poised to take over.
Utah scored early in the fourth quarter after a promising BYU drive stalled to give Utah a 14-10 lead, their first in the game. BYU had struggled to consistently move the ball for much of the evening, but the Cougars answered with a quick 5-play, 81-yard drive in just over two minutes, retaking the lead on 12-yard run from Kingston. The defense forced an turnover on Utah's next possession, a interception from Tanner Wall on a deep ball at the BYU 36. The offense marched down the field before Bear Bachmeier etched his legacy on the game with a 22 yard TD with a QB run on 3 and 11, putting BYU up 24-14 with just over 4 minutes left in the game. Utah struck once more to pull within one score but couldn't make good on an onside-kick attempt, leaving the Cougars with the ball and the win.
The defense recorded their best havoc rating of the year with 3 sacks and 8 tackles for loss to accompany two turnovers; safety Faletau Satuala led the team with 12 tackles, setting the tone for a front that refused to bend late, denying Utah on fourth downs (1 for 5).
This wasn’t just a rivalry win, it was a blueprint for how BYU succeeds: control the trenches, convert in the red zone, and finding a handful of explosive plays when the moment demands it. Now that model faces its toughest road test yet: a trip to Ames against a veteran squad with an extra week to prepare.
JTHOM Analytics predicts that this game will be nearly as difficult for BYU as the Utah game was at home. Of the three games Iowa State has played nearest in difficulty to BYU, they have lost two. As we'll see below, Iowa State's defense isn't as formidable as Utah or Arizona and should allow BYU's offense to have a standout performance.
Advanced Numbers Snapshot
Quarterbacks
Bear Bachmeier (BYU): 62.7% completion rate, 1,386 yards, 9 TD / 3 INT, 8.3 YPA on the season, plus 82 carries for 359 yards and 8 TD. He’s not asked to force shots; he’s asked to make the big one when it counts and run intelligently when given scraps. Bear's best passing plays have come on play-action (to be fair, a majority of his passing attempts have involved play-action) or screens. Just over half of his passing yards have come on first down (755 yards) and he does his best running late in the game, averaging over 7 yards per attempt in the fourth quarter.
Rocco Becht (ISU): 1,622 yards, 9 TD / 3 INT, 8.1 YPA - similar stat line this season to Bear. Becht also has 54 carries for 91 yards with 7 TD. He plays within the system and wins by minimizing negative plays, not by trying to out-gun opponents. Notably, all three of his interceptions have come inside the opponents 40 yard line. Becht's weakness has been 3rd and long, completing only 13/29, 45% with two INT's on 3rd and 7 or longer.
Matchup Three Ways
1) BYU Offense vs Iowa State Defense
Establish rhythm on early downs - BYU’s offense ranks around 47% in success rate, but that figure jumps near 55% on standard downs when they stay balanced with LJ Martin and play-action. Iowa State’s defense allows only 39% success, among the best in the Big 12, and thrives when opponents are stuck behind the chains. If BYU can stay ahead of schedule on 1st and 2nd down, they can blunt the Cyclones’ ability to dictate personnel and coverage.
Find explosives against a disciplined shell - Iowa State’s defensive structure, the signature 3-3-5 stack, is designed to limit big plays while forcing long drives. Yet when teams break through, the damage is significant; their 1.25 explosiveness allowed per successful play shows they can be gashed once the initial layer is cleared. BYU’s offense has been quietly excellent at generating chunk plays (1.22 explosiveness), particularly on play-action deep crossers to Roberts or Kingston. Two or three of those shots could flip the expected scoring margins in a low-possession game.
Handle interior pressure and disguise - Defensive tackle Domonique Orange and linebacker Caleb Bacon anchor a front that rarely blitzes but consistently creates pocket stress through stunts and gap exchanges. Iowa State doesn’t rely on all-out pressure but on confusion - they’ve forced 8 turnovers this season by baiting quarterbacks into late throws. Bachmeier will need to stay decisive, use his legs when interior lanes open, and take what the defense gives without forcing deep shots into bracket coverage.
2) BYU Defense vs Iowa State Offense
Control the run fit and neutralize Abu Sama III - Sama has been Iowa State’s spark plug, averaging over 5.5 yards per carry and generating positive EPA on nearly half of his rushes. The Cyclones will need him to find success this week, especially if RB Hansen continues to miss time after leaving early during the Cincinnati game and missing the Colorado game. BYU’s front allows just 2.76 line yards per attempt and boasts a 19% stuff rate — strong indicators of disciplined gap control. If the Cougars can bottle Sama early and make Iowa State’s offense live in 2nd-and-8s, they’ll shrink the Cyclones’ playbook dramatically and force Becht to win through the air against tight windows.
Disrupt Rocco Becht’s timing - Becht’s efficiency depends on rhythm: short throws, quick reads, and avoiding pressure. When hurried, his QBR drops by nearly 30 points, and his completion rate falls under 55%. BYU’s defense has found success mixing coverages - alternating press-man and rotating safeties post-snap - to create hesitation. Expect Jay Hill to bring controlled pressure packages, especially on 3rd-and-medium, to collapse the pocket without opening scramble lanes.
Win in red-zone discipline - Iowa State’s offense has been solid between the 20s but ranks mid-pack nationally (68th) at points per red zone visit. BYU’s defense, meanwhile, has been very efficient in the red zone, only allowing an average of 2.3 points per red zone trip. The Cougars’ ability to hold that line, forcing three instead of seven, could swing the game’s entire scoring equilibrium given how few possessions each side is likely to have.
3) Hidden Yards and Situations
Turnover and penalty margins are BYU’s silent edge - BYU sits at +6 in turnover differential, largely from clean quarterback play and opportunistic secondary work, while Iowa State is barely positive on the season. The Cougars have also trimmed penalties to just five per game the last two games, cutting nearly three infractions from their early-season average. In a game expected to feature under ten total possessions per team, those hidden margins - a turnover here, a short field there - can determine the outcome.
Field position and special teams execution matter more than usual - Iowa State thrives on pinning opponents deep and winning the middle third of the field. BYU’s special teams, anchored by Will Ferrin’s reliability, have been quietly excellent. If BYU can flip one or two punts or finish drives cleanly inside the 35, they can put pressure on the Cyclones who may be without a healthy place kicker in this game.
Situational football favors BYU late - The Cougars have outscored opponents 69-38 in the fourth quarter this season, showing their conditioning and poise under pressure. Iowa State’s offense, conversely, tends to stall late when behind schedule — only a 35.6% success rate in the fourth quarter. If this matchup stays within a touchdown entering the final frame, BYU’s balance and experience in close finishes should tilt it their way.
Keys to the Game
Force passing downs - Becht struggles on passing downs; hold the line on first down and get him behind the sticks.
Win the turnover battle - On the road, with the potential for an emotional letdown, it's more important than ever to protect the football. ISU isn't known for forcing a lot of turnovers - don't give them short fields and second chances.
Pound the rock - ISU stifled a normally successful Cincinnati passing attack, but allowed over 7 YPC. BYU has successfully run the ball against every defense they've faced, and ISU's run defense isn't Utah and certainly not Arizona. Run the ball, take controlled shots.
Prediction
This game is unlikely to turn into a shootout. Iowa State will attempt a lot of quick passes and outside runs; BYU will try to run the ball inside and seize the explosive moment. Given BYU’s higher ceiling and the poise shown in the Utah win, the edge goes to the Cougars in a tight finish.
BYU 31, Iowa State 23
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