BYU @ UCF
When the season started, UCF was forecast to be the least likely game for BYU to win. After week one and UCF's dominate rushing attack (454 yards, 8.4 ypc) against New Hampshire, BYU's odds dropped as low as 17.7% according to ESPN's FPI predictor. The season has taken a decidedly different trajectory than almost anyone could have predicted since then, with BYU sitting tied for first in the conference at 4-0 (7-0 overall) and UCF on a four game losing skid, in a six way tie for tenth place in the Big 12 at 1-3 (3-4 overall). The teams have met 3 times, with the all time record at 2-1 in BYU's favor. BYU won the last matchup in 2020 as Zach Wilson led the Cougars to a 49-23 victory in the Boca Raton Bowl.
UCF experienced a lot of turnover through the transfer portal this past offseason, with 27 incoming transfers and 23 outbound players. They also signed one of the top incoming freshman classes in the conference. Perhaps the biggest change came at QB with the loss of senior John Plumlee and picking up the highly touted transfer KJ Jefferson from Arkansas. Despite his experience at Arkansas and a looking good with a 3-0 start to the season, Jefferson looked bad in losses to Colorado and Florida, completing less than 60% of his passes with 2 TD's and 3 Int's and was sacked 5 times in both games.
The Knights opted to start true freshman EJ Colson against Cincinnati, but when he struggled early brought in sophomore Jacurri Brown. While Brown had a decent game (13/20, 207 yards, 1 TD, 16 carries for 84 yards), he was ultimately sacked at the Cincinnati 25 yard line as time expired and the Knights lost 19-13. Jacurri Brown started against Iowa St and will be the starter against BYU. In the loss to Iowa St, Brown showed his running abilities (13 carries, 154 yards, 11.8 ypc, 2 TD's) but had a terrible time passing the ball (8/20, 62 yards, 2 Int's). He was aided in the running game by UCF's leading RB - RJ Harvey (25 carries, 196 yds, 7.8 ypc, 2 TD's). On the season, Harvey is averaging 6.7 ypc, with 890 total yards and 11 TD's. UCF has clearly had a lot of success running the ball the last two games. They've used a mix of zone read and designed QB runs to get Brown and Harvey into space. In the highlights, you'll see Harvey get the ball on a zone read play at the 0:26 mark. The safety takes a bad angle and he goes 80 yards untouched. At the 1:01 mark, the left guard and tackle pull around and Brown takes the designed keeper right up the middle of the field 67 yards for a TD.
Running QB's have occasionally given BYU's defense trouble this season; KSU's Avery Johnson 74 yards with 6.7 ypc, and Oklahoma State's Garret Rangel 77 yards with 15.4 ypc and Alan Bowman 19 yards with 6.3 ypc. Our defense will need to be very assignment sound to contain Brown. The seemingly obvious game plan is to once again stack the box and dare him to beat us with his arm. Brown was sacked four times in his first start against Cincinnati but zero times last week against Iowa State. Despite all of the rushing yards, the game is only close because of turnovers. Iowa State gave up a pick-six and what should have been a second pick-six, but the defender let go of the ball as he reached the endzone. The Knights punched it in from the one. 14 points on turnovers kept them in the game to the end.
Coach Poppinga said in an interview this week that the defense was struggling to enjoy last week's win, that instead of being happy for the win they are upset with their performance are have been eager to practice this week and fix their mistakes. Injured starting center Connor Pay also reports that the team is frustrated that they are once again being picked to lose by bettors in Vegas when the team is undefeated and playing against a team with a losing record. Hopefully that translates to everyone putting in the work this week, studying game film, and coming out dialed in, ready to do their part.
The Knights defense is very weak against the pass. Opponents complete an average of 66% of their passes. The defense is 119th in pass yards allowed per game, 122nd in 3rd down conversions allowed, and 115th in 4th down conversions allowed. On the other hand, they are decent against the run, only allowing 3.9 ypc, which is 41st in the country. They've been allowing teams to score an average of 29.5 points. The odds seem good that our offense will move the ball effectively against UCF, with a pass first to set up the run type of approach. UCF is also among the most frequently penalized teams in the country, with 6.8 penalties per game (90th nationally).
Keys to the game:
Contain the QB. Don't let Brown hit the edges on the zone read option.
Protect the football. Oklahoma State beat BYU in the first half because of three turnovers. UCF took Iowa State down to the wire with timely turnovers and converting them to touchdowns.
Play conservative defense. All three scoring drives for UCF last week included big plays of 45+ yards. Anytime they were forced to take the short yards and sustain a drive they inevitably failed to convert or committed a penalty that forced them to punt, or even turned it over. Their longest successful drive was 6 plays including a 46 yard run on 3rd down. While I generally prefer to watch an aggressive defense, UCF depends on big plays to score and hasn't shown discipline to sustain a drive with Brown at QB.
Prediction: BYU has scored 34+ in six of seven games, including a five straight. UCF has only scored more than 21 once in their 4 game losing streak and hasn't won a game this season scoring less than 35. First team to 30 wins this game. I think BYU will be better prepared for the option attack this week than they were against Oklahoma State, but will probably still have a few mistakes that UCF turns into big yardage plays. I think BYU continues to score against a weaker pass defense and comes away with a solid win, 37-28.
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