BYU @ Utah
This is where legends are made. While BYU won the last head-to-head matchup in 2021, it has been 18 years since BYU won in Salt Lake City. 18 years since Beck to Harline and the echoes of Greg Wrubell, "...all kinds of time, now the heat comes, he's gotta run to the right, John Beck is on the run, he throws behind him, it is...CAUGHT FOR THE TOUCHDOWN! CAUGHT FOR THE TOUCHDOWN!"
In the 2010's it seemed that BYU was masterful at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in Rice Eccles Stadium. 2012 saw a game tying field goal blocked by Utah DE Star Lotulelei, and was gifted a second chance when the crowd rushed the field prematurely. The second attempt bounced off the upright, officially ending the game. 2016 had BYU scoring a potentially equalizing TD with :18 left in the game and electing to go for a two point conversion. Taysom Hill was hit in the backfield as multiple blocks were missed on the attempt and the game was over. 2018, BYU scored a touchdown with 5 minutes to go in the third quarter and pushed the lead to 27-7, only to be outscored 28-0 over the final 20 minutes as BYU only managed 44 yards during that time span.
The time has come for a change. Utah enters the game on a four game losing skid, tied for 13th place in the Big 12. They have lost to Arizona, Arizona State, TCU, and Houston. Following the loss to TCU, Offensive Coordinator Andy Ludwig left the program and QB coach Mike Bajakian has stepped in as interim OC. Bajakian is in his first season with the Utes. He spent the last four seasons as OC at Northwestern where he was fired at the conclusion of the 2023 season. The Wildcats averaged 17.5 points over his final three seasons with them.
During their current four game losing streak, Utah's offense has been among the worst in the country. They have averaged 12.5 points with 321.5 total yards offense per game. Even including their better offensive performances to start the season, the Utes have only averaged 19 points per game (#116th nationally). The troubles on offense begin with the QB: the Utes have completed 52.6% of their passes this season (#127 nationally) and have been even worse in conference play, completing less than half of their pass attempts. They have been among the worst in the country in interceptions thrown per attempt (#118th) and among the worst in the Big 12 in QB sacks allowed per attempt.
The Utes have a quarterback controversy on their hands as Cam Rising has exited the season for the last time with a lower leg injury that will require surgery and true freshman backup Isaac Wilson has struggled mightily to find his footing as he has been thrust in the spotlight. During their last game, a loss at Houston, Wilson was benched early in the 3rd quarter and redshirt Sophomore Brandon Rose was given an chance. The offense didn't fare any better with Rose at the helm as he went 7/15 for 45 yards with an INT. Coach Whittingham announced that both QB's would split reps during the bye week and a starter wouldn't be officially announced until kickoff. Those close to the program expect Rose to start against BYU as Wilson has apparently been playing injured the last few weeks.
Utah will be without one of their best receivers, Money Parks, and without starting right guard Michael Mokofisi. Mokofisi has been the highest rated run blocking lineman in the country so far this season. His backup played well last week against Houston when he left the game, but he will be missed. The offense has leaned heavily on the rushing attack, lead by Micah Bernard, since they haven't found any consistent success throwing the ball. On the season, Bernard has 782 yards at 6 ypc with 3 rushing touchdowns. He also has 95 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown. Unfortunately for Bernard, as the QB has failed to be a consistent threat, teams have been able to load box against him. In their wins, he averaged 6.9 ypc, and in their losses he's been held to 5. In particular, the last two weeks against TCU and Houston, he's only had 55 and 51 yards in each game for 3.9 ypc.
The only remaining player for the Utes that has experienced a win against BYU is TE Brant Kuithe, a 6th year senior who is perhaps their best weapon. He success this season has been limited by quarterback play. He has been a top target all season, and had the lone passing TD reception for the Utes in their last game, on a screen play to the middle of the field that allowed him to break into open space for the 71 yard touchdown. Look for Utah's offense to bring Kuithe in motion often, using screen's and passes behind the line of scrimmage to try and find ways to get him out into space.
While the offense has been a disaster, Utah is still able to keep most games competitive because of their defense. Currently rated 13th overall in points allowed per game at 18.9, Utah is usually only a turnover or lucky breakaway play on offense away from winning their games. The strength of the defense is the secondary, only allowing opposing QB's to complete 51% of their passes (#3 nationally) for an average of 183 yards (#20 nationally). Uncharacteristically for the Utes, they have struggled to get pressure on the QB, averaging 1 sack per game this season, and only 1 sack total in their four losses. The Utes have been fairly banged up in the front seven and expect to be near full health this week. With that noted, their run defense has been similar to BYU's against significantly weaker rushing attacks. In their last game, the Utes allowed Houston to run for 228 yards and 4.6 ypc. On the season, they've allowed 4.2 ypc and 141 yards per game.
To further add to the Utes troubles, the rumors out of Salt Lake today suggest two players quit the team today.
Keys to the game:
Stack the box - contain Bernard and the running game and force whomever starts at QB to beat BYU through the air.
Keep emotions in check - play smart, no penalties, don't let the crowd get in their head, stick to the game plan
Win the turnover battle - Utah's streak of victories in the 2010's included winning the turnover battle by an average of almost 2 turnovers per game, with only one game during the streak where BYU beat Utah in turnover margin. In the 2021 BYU victory in Provo, the Cougars won the turnover margin by 2.
By all metrics, this is BYU's game. We have the best offense and defense that Utah has faced this season, coming into Salt Lake when the Utes are down and turning on each other in the locker room, with their offensive coordinator leaving the team mid season. One team on the rise, the other crashing, heading for rock bottom. The Utes will come out fighting - a loss against BYU is likely the nail in the coffin for their season, as they aren't favored in any of their remaining games and could very well lose out and miss a bowl game. I think our offense will be held below our season averages, but I still expect we will score 24+. Utah will have spent a lot of time watching the film from the BYU vs Oklahoma State game, and I expect we will see more of the speed option from Utah than we have in other game this season, as well as new pre-snap motions in an attempt to replicate their success. Utah, like BYU, had an extra week to prepare for this game. I think we force two or more turnovers and hold Utah to 10 points or less - as long as we don't gift them points via turnovers (the 2015 Vegas Bowl comes to mind, with turnovers on BYU's first five possessions).
I'll take BYU in a comfortable victory, 27-10.
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