BYU vs Kansas

BYU hosts Kansas in another late game at Lavell Edwards Stadium. The Cougars have been electric under the home lights and will be looking for a little revenge. Last season BYU lost at Kansas, highlighted by a massive hit from Kansas on Parker Kingston, resulting in a fumble that was returned for a touchdown on BYU's second offensive play of the game.

Kansas' defense provided another touchdown on a pick-six to start the second half. Three turnovers and two defensive touchdowns proved the difference in the game, with a final score of 27-38.

Kansas returned most of their star power from last season and had high expectations heading into the season, with dynamic duo QB Jalon Daniels and RB Devin Neal leading the way. Daniels started the first three games of 2023, completing 74.7% of his passes for 705 yards and 5 TDs with 1 INT before missing the rest of the season with a back injury. Neal had 1,280 yards last year and 16 TDs. Kansas also gained a face familiar to BYU fans with Jeff Grimes joining the coaching staff as assistant head coach and co-offensive coordinator. The Jayhawks were picked to finish 4th in the Big 12 and started the season ranked #22 in the AP poll. Expectations were quickly dashed, with a big win over an FCS opponent to start the season, followed by 5 straight losses to FBS opponents, including a home loss to UNLV.

The offense took some time to find a rhythm with Grimes calling the plays and has seemingly turned a corner over the last 4 games. Through the first 5 games, Jalon Daniels completed 53% of his passes for 183 ypg, 7 TD's and 8 INT's. Over the last 4 games, he's completed 60% of his passes for 304 ypg, 12 TD's and 1 INT. Another part of the offense's improvement has been Daniels running the ball, with a rushing touchdown in each of the last four games, averaging 5.2 ypc and over 50 yards per game. In this stretch they've had a close loss at Arizona St 35-31, a blowout win over Houston 42-14, a very close loss at #16 Kansas St 29-27, and a win at home over #17 Iowa St 45-36 in a game that wasn't as close as the final score would suggest. In addition to Daniels emergence, Neal has had multiple great performances during the same stretch, with 6 TD's while averaging 5.8 ypc in those four games. He's also been getting multiple targets per game, showing good hands and picking up yards after the catch.

While the Jayhawks offense has shown teeth, the defense has been rather pedestrian. They've allowed 4.4 ypc on the ground (77th nationally) while also giving up 8.3 ypp (107th). Opponents average 28.8 points per game. This is not the strongest defensive squad BYU has faced by a long shot, a far cry from the Utes defense of last week. To their credit, they are #35th in sack rate and while they give up big plays through the air, they've also been opportunistic forcing turnovers, averaging nearly two takeaways per game.

Iowa State fell behind early last week, giving up six straight scoring drives to the Jayhawks, which forced the offense to be aggressive and one dimensional as they pushed to get back in the game. For BYU to avoid their fate, they will need to match the Jayhawks punch for punch, keeping the game within reach. While right tackle Brayden Keim will miss the game following ankle surgery, starting center Conner Pay is expected to return and provide a boost to the line. Against Iowa State, Kansas found a lot of success running the speed option, where Daniels showed he is a real threat when he keeps the ball. In the clip below, Daniels keeps it on the option, diving through contact for the touchdown.

The receivers are fast and were able to exploit mistakes in coverage to get open deep often, with a lot of credit to Daniels for recognizing pressure and consistently making the right read. In the clip below, the defense brings the corner on a blitz. The receiver realizes he has a clear path to the endzone and calls for the ball, with Daniels recognizing and attacking the hole in coverage.

Keys to the game:

1. Contain the running game - in last weeks win over Iowa St the Jayhawks pounded the ball with 46 carries and averaged 5.2 ypc with 3 rushing TD's. Daniels made a couple of big plays scrambling out of the pocket. The defense needs to fill their running lanes and stay assignment sound.

2. Score first - In both of the Jayhawks conference wins, they scored first and then outpaced their opponent. BYU's strength on defense is the secondary and defending the pass. Putting Kansas in passing situations plays to BYU's strengths and increases the probability of turnovers. Score first, make Kansas play from behind and set the defense up for success.

3. Protect Retzlaff - when Retzlaff has a clean pocket, he is among the best in the country in pass efficiency. Last week he was under constant duress for most of the game despite keeping extra blockers home to defend against the blitz.

Prediction:

BYU is the only team in the top 25 that has won 5 road games. Winning on the road is difficult, which is why oddsmakers give home teams a point advantage when predicting the spread. While Kansas has been much improved in recent weeks, they have yet to win a road game. I expect their offense to score points, likely more than the 20.6 our opponents have averaged so far. BYU's offense is also hungry to bounce back from a less than stellar performance against the Utes, and Kansas has been vulnerable all season. BYU is currently favored by 2.5 points.

I think BYU covers the spread and wins 42 - 31.