BYU vs Oklahoma State
Photo Credit: Sarah Phipps-USA TODAY Sports
BYU ended last season with a heartbreaking loss in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Needing a win to reach bowl eligibility, BYU led by as much as 18 points but was outscored 21-3 in the second half. BYU scored a touchdown in the first overtime as Retzlaff kept it on an option to the left side of the field. Oklahoma State matched the touchdown with a score of their own and then opened the second overtime with another quick touchdown. The loss was sealed when Isaac Rex lost the ball on a quick pass, ruled a fumble and recovered by Oklahoma State. BYU is 0-3 all time against the Cowboys, the prior two losses occurring in '74 in the Fiesta Bowl and '76 in the Tangerine Bowl.
Oklahoma State was picked to finish 3rd in the Big 12 in the pre-season polls. They made it to the conference championship last season where they lost to Texas. They finished the season 10-4 with a win over Texas A&M in the Texas Bowl. They returned all 11 starters on offense and only lost one starter from the defense. With so much returning talent from a successful season it is easy to understand the high expectations for this team, and yet so far they have had a disappointing season. After starting the season at 3-0 out of conference including a win over Arkansas, the Cowboys have lost all three games in conference play, now sitting unhappily at 3-3 on the year with almost no chance at the conference championship.
The Cowboys offense is fairly one dimensional. They average 303 passing yards per game, good for 19th in the country, while only rushing for 91 yards per game, stuck miserably at 125th in the country. While reasonably explosive in their first three games, the offense looks significantly worse in conference play. In the last three games, Alan Bowman has thrown 2 picks per game and completed roughly half of his passes (51%) while rushing for a net -19 yards. Their first conference loss was the only loss that was even a close game, losing at home 22-19 against Utah. Their last two games have been lost by three scores each, 42-20 at Kansas St and 38-14 at home against West Virginia. During this stretch the Cowboys are converting only 30% of 3rd downs. A large part of their struggles on offense are similar to BYU's struggles; the lack of a consistent rushing attack. The running back responsibilities have mainly been carried by Ollie Gordon II, with 101 carries for 384 yards (3.8 ypc) and 4 TD's. The other two backs with carries have combined for 42 total carries,124 yards (2.95 ypc), and 2 TD's. What makes the lack of a rushing threat all the more puzzling is that last season as a sophomore Gordon II won the Doak Walker award, leading the nation in rushing yards with 1,614 yards, and second in the nation with 20 rushing TD's. The one real positive I can give to this offense is that they've only allowed 3 sacks this season, which is the 4th best in the country.
It's also worth noting that starting QB Alan Bowman was benched in the second half in their last game against West Virginia after a 10-19 showing for 116 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT's. In his stead, redshirt sophomore Garret Rangel threw 3-4 for 75 yards and his first TD. 43 of those yards and the touchdown came on a play where West Virginia jumped offsides on defense, allowing Rangel to take a free shot downfield. Overall this season Rangel is now 11 of 24 for 141 yards, 45.8% completion. While some are calling for a change at QB, and Bowman's play thus far hasn't been inspiring, one quarter of decent play from Rangel doesn't inspire much hope that he can be the spark to ignite the offense. The other note from that game is that Ollie Gordon II limped off the field in the 3rd quarter and didn't return to the game. Coach Gundy implied that it wasn't a long term injury, but I haven't seen any updates to his status since the game.
In BYU's win over Arizona the offense found it's best success of the season running the ball, as injured RB's LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati returned to action. The Cougars ran the ball 27 times for 147 yards, 5.4 ypc, and a rushing TD. The offense used the pitch option quite effectively as a way to extend the play to the outside and give the backs room to work.
The pitch option was also used for a big run for 37 yards by Miles Davis against SMU, on 4th and 1 with 4 minutes left in the game.
I expect we will see more of the option going forward given how successful the speed option has been. The good news for BYU is that they have an opportunity to have their best rushing game of the season against the Cowboys. In their last three games, they have allowed 249 yards with 4.8 ypc, 300 yards with 8.8 ypc, and 389 yards with 6 ypc. Their rush defense is in absolute shambles. They currently rank 118th in allowed ypc and 131st in rushing yards per game. This could be extremely helpful, as it looks to be a cold and possibly wet game, with a high of 45 and likely rain in the morning, sunset almost two hours before kickoff and a slight possibility of additional rain in the evening. Being able to depend on the ground game and not need to throw the ball as much could be a boon to our offense.
On the other hand, if BYU does need to throw the ball, Oklahoma State hasn't exactly been stellar at stopping the passing game either. Their defense is currently allowing 8.7 yards per pass, 97th in the country. Opposing QB's aren't completing a high percentage, roughly 60% in conference play, but they also aren't throwing the ball much because they haven't needed to. Both of their last opponents have had over 550 yards of offense. They have landed 11 sacks so far, including 4 sacks in conference play, but BYU has only allowed 2 sacks in conference play and none at all the last two weeks.
Oklahoma State comes into the game off a bye week, while BYU has a short week, having played last Saturday and this matchup falling on a Friday night. I expect Oklahoma State to have a few wrinkles added to the their offense and defense and to play a little sharper early in the game than they have the last few weeks. It's also going to be a cold game in a wild environment. The stadium has been filled past capacity for both home conference games and will likely be a sellout again, despite the late kickoff. BYU is a 9 point favorite in Vegas and has beat the spread by at least two scores in every game this season.
Keys to the game:
Win the turnover battle: Oklahoma State has struggled to protect the ball and BYU has thrived on turnovers and short fields. Protect the ball, cause havoc, and win the turnover margin.
Establish the run: There is no better opportunity this season for the Cougars to dominate the ground game. Consistent yards on the ground lead to easy third down conversions, control of the clock, and points.
Third down defense: If there is one area that the defense has struggled, it's getting off the field on third down. The Cowboys haven't been effective on third down the last few weeks and it's prevented them from having long controlled drives. Get stops on third down and get the ball back to the offense.
Prediction: The Cowboys keep things close early with new looks on both sides of the ball but ultimately continue to struggle to run the ball or convert critical third downs. BYU's home crowd spurs the Cougars on as BYU has their most complete offensive showing of the season. Look for BYU to put the game away in the second half and win by multiple scores.
BYU 41, Oklahoma State 17
Update: Brett McMurphy with Action Network reports Oklahoma State is expected to start Garret Rangel (RS-So) or Zane Flores (RS-Fr) Friday. Rangel has been the backup so far this season and is who I would expect to get the nod if the QB depth chart is shuffled.
Comments