BYU vs Stanford
Last Meeting
The last time these teams met was the regular season finale of 2022, an up and down season for the Cougars that ended at 8-5. BYU controlled the game from the opening drive, scoring touchdowns on each possession of the first half, then coasting to a comfortable 35-26 victory even after two last minute touchdowns from Stanford made the score seem closer than the game actually was.
Stanford at a glance
The Cardinal have finished with 3 wins in each of the last 4 seasons. Head coach Frank Reich is in his first full season leading the program. He brings a pro-style offense that struggled to find a rhythm in week 0 against Hawaii. Despite a decent rushing attach with both main RB's averaging 4.4 ypc, the offense couldn't move the ball through the air at all. Starting QB Ben Gulbranson went 15/30 for 109 yards, 0 TD's and 1 INT. His reads were slow and he struggled to get the ball out on time for most of the game. Gulbranson's INT late in the 4th quarter allowed Hawaii to move into field goal range to tie the game with just over two minutes left. A three and out gave the ball right back to the Rainbow Warriors who moved into field goal range again for a walk-off field goal to clinch the win.
On defense, Stanford was stingy. While Hawaii completed 67.5% passing on 27/40, they only managed 210 yards through the air, accompanied by 96 rushing yards at 4.0 ypc. The defense really shone on third downs, with 3/10 converted. Stanford had a bye last week and will certainly come to Provo with something to prove after stewing on their last minute loss for two weeks.
The BYU side
JR WR Tiger Bachmeier played the last two seasons for Stanford before transferring to BYU this summer along with his brother, FR QB Bear Bachmeier who had his first start against Portland State. It is difficult to judge how effective the BYU offense will be based on last week's dominate performance against an uninspiring FCS squad. Bear threw for 97 yards and 3 TDs on 7/11. His accuracy was suspect on a few of his throws, particularly on the deeper routes. He also accounted for 2 TD's on the ground - all in the first half of the game, before the back-ups took the field in the second half. The Cougars pounded the ball on the ground with 48 carries for 467 yards. Across all 14 players with at least one carry they averaged 9.8 ypc.
The defense got new looks from Portland State the first two drives and allowed just over 40 yards as they adjusted to two and three TE looks. After that, the defense was impenetrable, allowing only 52 total yards for the whole game. 1/13 on 3rd down, 10/20 for 56 yards passing, and -3 rushing yards. Coach Hill said the defensive look was fairly vanilla and he was pleased with the performance from the back-ups who got lots of reps.
Keys to the game:
Pound the rock. Stanford allowed Hawaii 4.0 ypc - Hawaii only managed 3.6 ypc over all of last season. I don't expect BYU to maintain anywhere near 10 yards a pop this season - Portland St was clearly overmatched and a poor measuring stick. I still saw a healthy LJ Martin shaking off would-be tacklers and showing good vision behind his blockers. I expect Martin and Moa to get a lot of carries to lighten the load for Bear.
Stack the box. Force Stanford to throw the ball. The QB isn't mobile and showed poor chemistry with his receivers last week. Pack the line, stuff the run, and force him to beat us through the air.
Protect the football. I would rather see Bear take a sack and a loss of down than a desperation throw that turns into a turnover. We saw that a couple of times last season and was one of the biggest complaints against Retzlaff. Win the turn-over margin.
Prediction
BYU is a heavy favorite going into this game at 17.5 points. I'll take BYU to cover the spread, because I don't think Stanford manages more than 10 points against this defense if BYU avoids turning the ball over. Expect another week of run heavy offense, with a mix of screen plays and play-action passes to keep the defense off balance. I'll also call at least one trick play from A-rod that makes the highlight reel. I'll take BYU 34-10.
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