BYU vs UCF - Regular Season Finale
A year ago, the 11th ranked BYU Cougars rolled into FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando, Florida and cruised past the UCF Knights 37-24. The final score makes the game seem somewhat closer than it actually was as the Knights put up 14 points late against the backups. This year, UCF comes to Provo for a game with some weight behind it for both teams. UCF sits at 5-6 on the season, in desperate need of an upset to go bowling. BYU is once against the 11th ranked team in the country and can lock up their place in the Big 12 championship with a win. They also are playing with a sense of urgency, needing a convincing win against a perceived weaker opponent as they sit on the fringe of the playoff's, currently the first team out. The all time series sits at 3-1; BYU has beaten them twice in Florida and won the lone matchup in Utah in 2011.
Game Details
When/Where: Saturday, November 29, 11:00 a.m. MT - LaVell Edwards Stadium
TV: ESPN 2
Line: BYU -17.5
UCF at a Glance
In 2023, UCF was the only newcomer to the conference that reached a bowl game, going 6-7. Last year proved to be their worst showing in a decade with only two conference wins and a 4-8 overall record. Their head coach resigned and the Knights brought back Scott Frost who had been their head coach from 2016 - 2017. This season hasn't been the return to the glory days that fans had hoped for as they've watched their team limp to a 5-6 record, struggling to come back against Oklahoma State last week, the same Oklahoma State that fired their head coach and have yet to win a game in conference play this season. After getting down 14-0 at half time, they scored 17 unanswered points in the second half, including a game winning field goal with a under a minute to go.
The offense has playmakers. QB Tayven Jackson is in his first season at UCF having made previous stops at Tennessee and Indiana, with as many and INT's and TD's on the season at 8 each. The Knights build everything around their ability to generate big runs. Their advanced rushing profile shows low efficiency on a down-to-down basis, but when they find daylight, the gains come in chunks. Their leading duo of running backs, Myles Montgomery and Jaden Nixon, have combined for 1,221 yards at 6 YPC. Montgomery exited the game against Houston with a shoulder injury and missed the Texas Tech game completely, but returned to action last week with 18 carries for 81 yards against Oklahoma St. Two other running backs are out for the season and walk-on, 5th string freshman Agyeman Addae took snaps against Texas Tech in Montgomery's absence. When Montgomery breaks outside the tackles, UCF looks dangerous. When defenses stay disciplined and force him into traffic, the offense loses its spark.
Defensively, UCF’s identity has been difficult to pin down. Their average yardage allowed -roughly 146 on the ground and 153 through the air in Big 12 play - suggests balance, but the weekly results have swung wildly. Some opponents have been held under 230 total yards; others have been allowed to approach 500. The Knights have athletes who can create problems, particularly in the back seven where players like Phillip Dunnam and Demari Henderson can flip possessions with a single read. But discipline has been a recurring issue, especially against long, methodical drives where one missed tackle or misaligned run fit opens the door to trouble. When Kelly, Carter, or McDonald set the tone physically, UCF’s defense looks sharp. When the fundamentals slip, opponents tend to seize control quickly.
The BYU Side
The Cougars enter this week playing confident, purposeful football. While the offense entered the season with a lot of questions with the loss of leaders like Jake Retzlaff, Connor Pay, and a bevy of talent at wide receiver, they have answered all questions and created a new identity that emphasis's ball control, winning the line of scrimmage, and making big plays when the game is on the line. BYU hasn’t thrived on flash; they’ve thrived on knowing exactly how to handle each phase of a game and letting their depth and discipline wear teams down.
On defense, BYU continues to showcase some of the most reliable fundamentals in the conference. They’ve held opponents to around 321 yards per game, but the more telling trait is how few easy plays they concede. The front seven contain the run with patience (particularly in the red zone), the secondary forces quarterbacks into tight windows, and the entire group plays with a level of communication that keeps breakdowns to a minimum. Opposing offenses rarely dictate pace; instead, BYU pushes them into crowded downs and distances where the Cougars’ scheme can leverage pressure and disguise. It’s the kind of defense that frustrates teams like UCF that rely on explosive plays to stay afloat.
Offensively, BYU has taken significant strides over the past several weeks. The balanced approach - just over 418 yards per game, split evenly between run and pass - has allowed the unit to sustain long possessions and maintain control of the game’s tempo. The run game has found dependable footing, picking up enough steady yardage to keep drives manageable. And behind it all, Bear Bachmeier continues to evolve. His season totals (2,177 yards, 13 touchdowns, and only four interceptions) reflect steady improvement, but the real value has been his composure. He operates with an understanding of when to take what the defense gives him and when to look downfield for bigger opportunities. Late in games, he’s been particularly poised, completing nearly 68% of his passes in the fourth quarter without an interception. His decision making has been very impressive and usually puts the defense in good positions where opponents are forced to drive the length of the field.
Advanced Numbers Snapshot
Quarterbacks
Tayven Jackson remains the central figure in what UCF wants to do. When the ground game gives him manageable downs, he’s comfortable working the quick game and stretching the field with play-action. When forced into longer passing situations, his responsibilities grow, and the offense’s volatility becomes more pronounced. His 1,919 passing yards reflect both the opportunities he’s created and the tight spots he’s occasionally been put in by inconsistency around him. He hasn't shown much scrambling ability, with 96 rushing yards on the season and taking 14 sacks. When put in high pressure situations, he has shown a tendency to force the ball or hold onto it for too long. For BYU, the challenge lies in keeping him from extending plays and hitting the improvisational throws he’s capable of.
For BYU, Bear Bachmeier has become exactly the quarterback this system requires at this stage of the season. His stat line - 2,304 yards through the air, 13 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 525 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns - underscores the composure he’s developed. But what matters more is how he plays in the moments that typically decide games. He’s been reliable on early downs, calm when BYU has needed him to manage a lead, and effective late when drives require poise. While Jackson’s game thrives on tempo and space, Bachmeier’s strength is steadiness. In a matchup between two teams with very different offensive personalities, that steadiness could become the defining trait.
Matchup Three Ways
1) BYU Offense vs UCF Defense
UCF’s defensive volatility makes this matchup particularly compelling. They have the personnel to create backfield disruption and the playmakers to flip a possession with one snap, but staying aligned and disciplined for long stretches has been an issue. BYU’s offense's strength has been running the ball behind LJ Martin and Bear - expect a heavy dose of the run game today, with runs from Parker Kingston and Cody Hagen stretching the defense on the edges. While Aaron Roderick prefers to call a balanced game, I would expect that balance to shift this week as there is such a clear advantage in the run game against this defense. As long as the offense stays on schedule and the Cougars aren't playing from behind, the run game should find a lot space against this defensive front.
2) BYU Defense vs UCF Offense
The Knights offense has been heavily dependent on the running backs finding a way to break a tackle and use their speed to break a big run. The low rushing success rate, low line yards, and abysmal, bottom 10 power success and stuff rate show that the offensive line has been struggling in run blocking to give the backs space. The high average yards per carry indicate that when the backs are able to break a tackle, they have the speed to break away and turn the broken tackle into massive gains. BYU's defensive line has been much improved throughout the season - look for them to have a big day filling gaps, stuffing backs at the line and getting after the quarterback.
3) Hidden Yards & Situations
Few teams in the conference have been as affected by penalties and turnovers as UCF. Nearly eight flags a game and close to two giveaways per outing have erased promising possessions all season long. BYU, on the other hand, has lived on the right side of those margins, committing fewer penalties and protecting the football. Over the course of four quarters, those hidden yards and the extra possessions they create tend to swing field position and momentum. In a matchup of structure versus volatility, those small edges accumulate.
Keys to the Game
1) Contain the run - UCF's offense is boom or bust. Don't let the backs get loose and UCF's offense will spin their wheels for most of the game.
2) Own third down - BYU's offense hasn't needed as many big plays to be successful. The offense should see a lot of third and reasonable situations - convert better than 50% and see a lot of long drives convert against a weak run defense.
3) Win the turnover margin - The Knights have played behind on the turnover margin for most of conference play. Protect the ball, wait for UCF to make a mistake and walk away with a controlled win.
Prediction
UCF has enough explosiveness to inject uncertainty into any matchup, but their inconsistency and self-inflicted mistakes have created uphill battles throughout the season. BYU enters with a more stable identity, a defense that rarely gives up cheap yards, and an offense that complements that structure with patient drives and situational strength. While UCF may have an explosive play or two in this game, sustaining that impact over four quarters has been their struggle. BYU’s ability to manage the game, avoid chaos, and lean into its strengths should carry the day as the Cougars push toward the postseason with momentum. If BYU comes in focused, not looking ahead to a potential rematch with Texas Tech, this should be a comfortable win against the weakest in opponent they've faced since West Virginia.
BYU 34, UCF 17
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