BYU vs Utah — The Holy War Returns to Provo
Updated: Oct 15, 2025
Recent History & Storylines
The Holy War is back, and this time the stage feels bigger than ever. BYU and Utah meet in Provo on Saturday night for the rivalry matchup, one now woven directly into Big 12 conference play with potential conference championship implications. Utah leads the all-time series, but BYU holds the recent momentum after last year’s 22-21 win in Salt Lake City, sealed by Will Ferrin’s 44-yard field goal as time expired. That victory re-established the rivalry’s balance, giving BYU a small 2-game win streak after a long drought through the 2010's with Utah's last win coming in 2019, and gave the Cougars a confidence that’s carried into 2025.
Both teams enter this matchup playing meaningful October football. BYU sits undefeated at 6-0 and ranked No. 15 in the latest AP Poll; Utah, 5-1 and No. 23, has rebounded from an early loss to Texas Tech with dominant wins over West Virginia and Arizona State. Add in bragging rights, playoff whispers, a sold-out LaVell Edwards Stadium, and the emotional meter is fully pinned.
Game Details
When/Where: Saturday, October 18, 6:00pm MT - LaVell Edwards Stadium
TV: FOX
Line: Utah -3.5
Utah at a Glance
Utah remains Utah - physical, assignment-sound, and relentless on defense, but this year's version carries a new gear at quarterback. Devon Dampier has grown into a true dual-threat, giving the Utes a balanced offense that tracks above 50 percent in success rate and keeps drives alive through designed runs and quick play-action. While the offense lacks a consistent deep threat option, they excel at finding short completions and finding ways to get playmakers into space.
Defensively, the Utes remain elite in early-down control. They hold opponents to 34.5 % success and allow only 2.33 line yards per rush, figures that anchor one of the Big 12’s toughest fronts. John Henry Daley is currently tied for 3rd nationally with 8 sacks and provides relentless pressure from the end of the defensive line. Yet the data shows cracks on the perimeter - a 1.30 defensive explosiveness rating hints at vulnerability to chunk plays when the pass rush doesn’t hit home.
The Utes enter the Holy War as a 5-1 squad, riding a defense that still defines their identity. Their lone loss, 34–10 vs. Texas Tech, was a rough night in which the Utes couldn’t get consistent push or shelter Dampier’s passing rhythm. But since then, Utah has responded: dominant showings against West Virginia and, most recently, a 42–10 shellacking of Arizona State, putting on full display what this team can do when all cylinders fire.
The BYU Side
BYU's unbeaten run hasn't always been easy, but it's been earned. The Cougars have won games in multiple ways, from early leads with a focus on slowing the game in the second half, to come from behind victories on the road. Bear Bachmeier continues to find his groove at quarterback. His efficiency metrics put him comfortably in the upper third of Big 12 starters and his growing connections with Chase Roberts and Parker Kingston have made for a more explosive passing attack.
Defensively, the Cougars EPA allowed and explosiveness prevention really jump off the charts. That combination is the sweet spot: keep a lid on opposing offense's big plays while being just efficient enough snap-to-snap to force punts. Add a havoc profile that’s good (not reckless) and we see a squad that is consistently putting the offense in a position for late, game-clinching drives, because the defense finds ways to get off the field when it matters most.
Last week’s double-overtime thriller in Tucson underscored their resilience. LJ Martin gashed Arizona for 162 yards and a touchdown, Bachmeier accounted for both the game-tying and game-winning scores, and BYU’s defense forced two critical stops inside the 25. It wasn’t perfect as two turnovers and early missed opportunities kept Arizona alive, but it was the kind of tough, emotional win that championship teams stack.
Advanced Numbers Snapshot (season-to-date)
More detailed definitions of all terms are available in the Glossary.
What is this Expected Points Added stat?
Expected Points (EP) measures how many points a team normally gets from any yard line on the field based on down, distance to go to a first down, and distance from the opponents endzone. Expected Points uses historical data to compute the average number of points a team typically scores in a given situation (ie. 1st down on your opponents 1 yard line has an average of ~6.2 points vs 1st down from your own 1 yard line where the average outcome is your opponent scoring ~2.6 points). Expected Points Added calculates from the start of a play to the end, what was the beginning EP and the ending EP? Others have done better, more detailed write-ups explaining EPA - I recommend this one.
Why does it matter?
Let's take a look at last year's season end offensive and defensive EPA. Left side is offensive EPA - higher score is better; bottom of the chart is defensive EPA - lower is better (the axis is inverted so that the lowest number is on the far right). The bottom left quadrant contains the realm of misery; terrible on offense and defense. Top left has teams that had a good offense, but lacked a defense. Bottom right is reserved for teams that struggled on offense, but had a stout defense. Teams in the top right quadrant were competing for championships. I've circled in blue the teams that advanced the CFP final four, and added an additional green circle around Ohio State, last years CFP champion. I think it's worth noting that the best teams were the top defenses, and the champion was the also the top offense. Defense wins, defense travels, and it generally takes a big offensive advantage to overcome a lack of defense.
With that in mind, let's look at the current season for the Big 12. There is an obvious top tier of teams - Texas Tech, Utah, and BYU. Utah's defense is only marginally better overall than Arizona's, who BYU beat on the road with the chaos of a storm and lightening delay. The Utes also have the best performing offense in the conference through 6 games. Since the loss to Texas Tech, they've been firing on all cylinders. There's a long way to go in the season yet, with upsets, injuries, and chaos to come, but if the current trends hold, the winner of this weekend's matchup is likely set for a rematch against Texas Tech in the conference championship.
Utah didn't fare well in their matchup with Texas Tech at home. According to JTHOM Analytics, BYU on the road should be an equally difficult challenge. Looking back at past games, Utah doesn't have any better wins than the teams BYU has faced and won't face a game this difficult again for the rest of the regular season. The Cougars face two more games rated as difficult as the Utes - on the road at both Cincinnati and Iowa St - and Texas Tech on the road will be a considerable step up in difficulty.
Quarterbacks
Dampier is the engine that makes the Utes offense work. He’s completed 118 of 165 passes (71.5%) for 1,131 yards, 11 TDs, and 3 INTs at 6.9 yards per attempt, and adds a major ground element with 65 carries for 378 yards (5.8 avg) and 5 rushing touchdowns. That combination fuels Utah’s high success rate and efficiency, keeping the offense on schedule even when the pocket collapses. Bachmeier on the other hand has shown higher volatility but greater explosiveness. He’s thrown for 1,220 yards on 91-of-144 passing (63.2%) with 8 TDs and 3 INTs, posting an 8.5 YPA mark that has earned him Big 12 freshman of the week awards four times this season. He’s also been a factor on the ground, with 71 rushes for 295 yards (4.2 avg) and 7 touchdowns, most coming on scrambles or red-zone zone-reads.
Reading the chart, Passer Efficiency Rating (PER) is a straight forward equation to measure how well a quarterback is throwing the football; generally speaking <90 is considered very poor, 90-120 poor, 121-150 average - solid but not elite, 151-180 excellent - most Heisman level QB's will have a PER of 170-200 for the season. ESPN’s Total QBR (Quarterback Rating) is a proprietary metric designed to measure a quarterback’s total impact on winning, not just passing efficiency. Unlike PER, which focuses only on passing stats, QBR incorporates every play involving the QB - passing, rushing, sacks, turnovers, and even penalties - and it adjusts for game context (score, down-and-distance, opponent strength, etc.). General ranges are <40 poor performance, 41-60 average, 60-70 good, 70-80 very good, 80+ elite. Last season the 90th percentile of QB's finished with a QBR score of 78.6 and above. The Big 12 currently has multiple QB's performing at a very high level; the season numbers will almost certainly be lower after the slate of conference games are finished.
Matchup Three Ways
1)_BYU Offense vs Utah Defense
Early-down efficiency and staying ahead of schedule - A play is considered successful if it results in points, gains ≥50% of yards needed on 1st down, gains ≥70% of yards needed on 2nd down, or gains 100% of yards needed on 3rd/4th down. BYU’s offense posts an overall 48.2 % success rate, facing a Utah defense that allows just 34.5 %. That means the Cougars must manufacture efficiency (quick RPOs, motion looks, and screens) to offset Utah’s dominance on standard downs (BYU 56.2 % vs Utah D 38.9 %). Every positive first-down snap matters; failure there feeds directly into Utah’s strength. We'll touch back on this later.
Rushing leverage and trench control - The Cougars generate 3.25 line yards per rush with a 50 % rush success rate, but Utah’s front yields only 2.33 line yards to opponents. Arizona's rushing defense was actually rated higher than Utah's, and BYU controlled the line for most of the game, with 5.1 YPC, 258 total rushing yards, and 3 rushing TD's. Expect the Cougars to follow a similar strategy in this game, leaning heavily on LJ and Bear, while hopefully finding more success throwing the ball at home with no rain on the forecast.
Explosives vs containment - A good offense averages better than 0.2 EPA. An explosive play then asks, when only looking at successful plays, how many expected points are being added? This separates being successful, but doing so by chipping away at yards needed, from being successful and getting big plays while doing so. BYU’s offense grades higher in explosiveness (1.24 EPA) than Utah’s, and Utah’s defense, at 1.30 explosiveness allowed, is more prone to big plays than its reputation suggests. By these numbers, Utah only allows about 1 in 3 plays to get the necessary yards, but when they do give up a successful play, they are prone to giving up bigger chunks. BYU's early offensive dominance at Arizona came mainly from two explosive plays - a 28 yard TD run from LJ Martin and 75 yard TD catch and run from Parker Kingston. BYU will need to have a couple of similar plays in this game, as one or two big completions could flip the math in what’s likely a field-position game.
2) BYU Defense vs Utah Offense
Efficiency chess match - Utah's offense thrives at staying ahead of the sticks, with a passing success rate of 50.3% and a rushing success rate of 53.8%. BYU's defense only allows a pass success rate of 35.9% and a rush success rate of 39.6%. Not noted in the chart, but of significance: Utah’s passing-downs success dips slightly to 46 %, while BYU’s defense allows just 24 % - a passing down is considered 2nd down with 7+ yards to go or 3rd/4th down with 5+ yards to go. Controlling first down is everything in this game. The Cougar's success on defense will largely be determined by how often they get Utah behind schedule and force Dampier to make big plays through the air.
Explosive prevention and havoc balance - BYU’s defense limits opponent overall explosiveness to 1.08 per play (elite), rarely allowing opponents big runs while being solid but slightly prone to giving up a big pass (ranked 50th nationally at preventing explosive pass plays). Utah’s offense sits near the bottom at at creating explosive plays (130th in explosive plays), relying on consistent, just big enough plays to get first downs. Havoc measures the percentage of plays that forced a turnover, resulted in a stop at or behind the line, or had a pass break-up. While the Cougars have been slightly above the national average at creating havoc (50th overall), Utah's offense is among the best in the country at avoiding it (3rd overall). The BYU defense switched to mainly press man coverage against Arizona in the 4th quarter and overtime and found it's best success of the night. Where Utah lacks explosive talent at receiver, expect to see more press coverage than usual this week, freeing up a player to spy Dampier.
Run-fit discipline and second-level tackling - BYU’s rush defense allows 2.59 line yards per carry, a sturdy mark, and they generate a 20.7% stuff rate, compared with Utah’s 23.4%. Dampier’s scrambles have helped the Utes prolong drives on passing downs, so edge contain and spy play will be crucial. LB Jack Kelly was missed last week after a game-time decision kept him on the sideline, despite warming up with the team. BYU will want him on the field as his elite closing speed will be needed to keep Dampier from regularly breaking loose.
3) Hidden Yards and Situations
Standard vs passing-down splits - BYU’s offense is slightly stronger on standard downs (56.2% to Utah’s 54.2%), but the Cougar's have struggled to consistently convert on passing down's at a poor 29%. The Cougars must stay out of 3rd-and-long or risk Utah dictating tempo.
Game-flow implications - BYU is the more volatile team, with higher peaks through explosiveness and a lower floor through per-play success, while Utah is steadier snap-to-snap with less big play capabilities. If the game stays slow, Utah finds early down success, sustains drives and limits the number of possessions by controlling the clock, Utah’s consistency wins. If the Cougar's defense is able to contain Dampier, force short drives and possessions climb, BYU’s explosive edge tilts the game back in their favor.
In short: the analytics show contrast. Utah’s steadiness on standard downs will stress BYU’s front early, but the Cougars’ defense thrives on forcing passing downs where opponents succeed only 24 % of the time. BYU’s path is clear: hold firm on first down, steal two explosive plays, and make Utah chase. If the Cougars turn Utah’s four-yard rhythm into third-and-sevens, the numbers swing toward a BYU win.
Keys to the Game (BYU)
Win early downs - Keep Bear out of obvious passing downs where Utah's pass rush can get home
Contain Dampier - deny him the edge, keep him in the pocket, and make him throw on time.
Avoid penalties - BYU has been plagued by minor penalties this season - false starts on offense, lining up in the neutral zone on defense (in back-to-back weeks!), etc, and everyone remembers how a defensive holding penalty allowed BYU's game winning drive to continue last year.
Prediction
This will feel like a heavyweight brawl with playoff stakes. Look for Utah's defense to set an early tone but BYU's offense to find just enough success behind LJ and Bachmeier to set up a couple of explosive plays that flip a low scoring game. Expect physicality, field-position drama, and a moment or two of pure chaos, but also expect LaVell Edwards Stadium to have the final word.
BYU 27, Utah 24
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