BYU vs West Virginia
Last Meeting
2023 in Morgantown: West Virginia bullied BYU 37–7 behind CJ Donaldson and Jahiem White on the ground. Jake Retzlaff made his first start at QB for BYU but never found traction offensively and WVU controlled the line of scrimmage from snap one. That's a script WVU would love to follow again and one BYU's defense seems well prepared to prevent.
Game Details
When/Where: Friday, Oct. 3, 8:30 p.m. MT— LaVell Edwards Stadium
TV: ESPN
Line: BYU -19.5
Context: BYU 4–0 (1–0 Big 12); West Virginia 2–3 (0–2 Big 12). Last week BYU rallied to win at Colorado 24–21; WVU fell to Utah 48–14.
West Virginia at a Glance
There’s no mystery about WVU’s happy place: stay ahead of the sticks and make it a 60-minute tug-of-war. When they’re forced to chase, the pass game hasn’t answered consistently. 45–3 vs Robert Morris, 10–17 @ Ohio, 31–24 (OT) vs Pitt, 10–41 @ Kansas, 14–48 vs Utah. When WVU can run on schedule they’re fine; when they chase the game, it gets ugly fast.
Against Utah the score got away from them, but the run game still flashed: 261 rushing yards at 5.4 YPC . The problem was they went 4-for-14 on third down, had limited pass efficiency once they trailed by two scores, and couldn't find explosive plays. They didn't throw the ball much, and weren't very effective when they did; 6/13 passing with two QB's splitting reps, only 85 passing yards, though they did have a passing TD.
The BYU Side
Season to Date (quick recap)
Four wins, one theme: defense wins games. BYU has lived in good situations; winning first and second down, creating just enough havoc, and forcing opponents to execute long drives. Offensively, it’s been patient football with a few well-timed punches. Taking care of the football has helped keep the defense out of short yardage situations.
Last Game: BYU 24, Colorado 21 (road) — a tale of two games
BYU opened tight; tempo felt off, early-down runs got stuffed, and the Buffs capitalized. After an uncharacteristically shaky start (down 14–0), it looked a lot like “here we go,” the classic road ambush.
From that point forward it flipped. The Cougars scored a field goal on their second possession; an 8 play, 65-yard drive, and after trading punts drove 94 yards on 10 plays to end the first half down 10-14. BYU finishing with 396 total yards and a very balanced split (217 rush / 179 pass). The Cougars didn’t turn it over, owned a 33:35 time-of-possession, and even with just 3-for-11 on third down, found rhythm by winning first down and leaning on QB keeper/jet sweep wrinkles. Two Bachmeier TDs to Chase Roberts stitched BYU back into it - Chase had one of the best performances of his career at BYU. Cody Hagen’s 32-yard jet in the fourth was the dagger; eye candy, leverage, and speed to the end zone.
For the defense, the difference was stark; 137 yards allowed on the first two drives became only 154 yards over the remaining 8 possessions for CU. Edges squeezed runs back inside, the back seven capped explosive plays, and Colorado had to grind. BYU’s profile shows up here - when opponents are forced into true passing downs, Def Pass EPA and Def Pass Success become drive killers.
Bottom line, it felt like a veteran road win, with a steady climb out of a hole, clean ball (0 turnovers), and a defense that tightened every quarter.
Advanced Numbers Snapshot (season-to-date)
More detailed definitions of all terms are available in the Glossary.
The Matchup, Three Ways
1) BYU Defense vs WVU Offense
This is the mis-match, and the chart says it loudly.
Pass-game clamp: BYU’s edges are huge here - Def Pass Yds/G, Def Pass EPA/play, Def Pass Success all grade ~top-quartile, while WVU’s pass offense sits bottom-third in those same categories. If WVU faces 8–10 true passing downs, that’s BYU’s wheelhouse.
Run-fit chess: BYU posts a strong Line Yards (Def) number (mid-80s percentile), which is exactly the tool you need vs WVU’s interior run. Expect WVU to use GT/counters and perimeter screens to widen fits.
Takeaway threat: BYU shows well in Opp Turnovers (Def); if the Cougars steal a possession, that might be the margin, because BYU only has 1 turnover lost so far.
WVU’s path: 55–60% rush success and a couple of deep play-action shots that actually land. If it’s 3rd-and-7, advantage BYU. If it’s 3rd-and-2, WVU’s playbook opens.
2) BYU Offense vs WVU Defense
Closer to even.
Explosive control to WVU: The stats give WVU modest paper edges in Def Pass Yds/G and opponent penalties draw. That’s a “make BYU drive the field” recipe.
BYU schedule control: BYU’s Rush Success/Line Yards live in the low-mid 60s percentiles—enough to keep 2nd-and-medium instead of 2nd-and-long. Bear found massive success scrambling last week against CU when their focus was shutting down LJ Martin.
Situational piece: BYU was 3-for-11 on 3rd at CU. That has to a focus for the offense this week - stay ahead of the chains and give Bear 3rd and manageable. If they keep it to 3rd-and-short with QB keeper sprinkled in, the chains will move.
3) Hidden Yards & Game Flow
Penalties: WVU’s defense profiles well at drawing flags; BYU must keep hands inside on the edge and live with punts over free first downs.
Field position: One short field (takeaway + return + penalty) could swing a quarter in a game where drives are long and points are earned.
First 20 minutes: If BYU jumps in front, WVU’s run bias gets stress-tested; if WVU lands the first haymakers on the ground, buckle up for a four-quarter tug-of-war.
Keys to the Game (BYU)
Win 1st & 2nd down vs the run - Force WVU to throw into BYU’s best defensive strength (pass EPA/success).
Protect the ball, finish red-zone trips - WVU needs extra possessions; BYU can tilt this with clean operation and short fields off takeaways.
Punch with tempo packages - Mix in QB keepers/option to punish aggressive overhangs and keep WVU out of their favorite pressure looks.
Prediction
WVU’s run game will pop a few bigger runs. But BYU’s pass defense is a bad draw for a Mountaineer offense that hasn’t thrown it efficiently. WVU run's the ball because they haven't been able to consistently move the ball through the air, and the high rush yards per game haven't generally translated into many points scored. A night game in Provo on a short week, crossing two time zones, with a defense that takes the ball away? The deck is stacked against the Mountaineers.
BYU 31, WVU 13
Comments